Why I don't care about the seventh generation.

Version 2.04

Okay, maybe I do care about 'the seventh generation'. The environment is very important to sustaining our technological progress. Not abusing resources and cutting consumption can go a long way to prolonging our specie's life on this planet. Recently these ideas have started to take on a very extreme ideology. Government intrusion and extreme measures are being proposed as a solution. A near socialist state is being proposed simply so that we might see "The seventh generation". However, others have proposed a different solution, and I have expanded on it by doing a little math.

It goes like this.

The first thing that one might see when comparing so called first world countries and third world countries is that all first world countries have low birth rates. The Total Fertility Rate is the number of births per family unit. First worlders tend to have only 1 or 2 children. In the United States, the only reason we have 2.1 children per couple is because of immigrant families that have more. So let's do some math and figure out how much the average population is shrinking each year in these technologically advanced countries.

'first world' countries TFR

Australia.....................1.8
Canada........................1.6
France........................1.7
Germany.......................1.4
Ireland.......................1.9
Italy.........................1.2
Japan.........................1.4
UK............................1.7
USA...........................2.1

Weighted average by population

In this table I created a weight for each country based on their population compared to the largest population, The United States.

Australia..........19,546,792....0.069670012
Canada.............31,902,268....0.113708244
France.............59,765,983....0.213022002
Germany............83,251,851....0.296731938
Ireland............3,883,159.....0.013840621
Italy..............57,715,625....0.205713976
Japan..............126,974,628...0.452571648
UK.................59,778,002....0.213064841
USA................280,562,489...1.0
Total..............723,380,797...2.578323282


1.8*0.069670012+1.6*0.113708244+1.7*0.213022002+
1.4*0.296731938+1.9*0.013840621+1.2*0.205713976+
1.4*0.452571648+1.7*0.213064841+2.1*1.0 = 4.453865817

4.453865817 / 2.578323282 = 1.727427219

The average couple is having 1.727 children. So the average couple is having between one and two children, more often two, in first world countries.

1.727427219 / 2 = 0.8635

It takes two to make a child, so we divide our TFR by 2 to figure out the average population growth.


By this measure the population is shrinking pretty fast. Each generation has 14% less population. The cool thing about this is that if magically all of the world's populations were to have the infrastructure, but more importantly the contraceptives and the will to use them available to them, then the world's population would be cut in half within 5 generations. Having 3 billion less people on the planet means less pollution, the people within these societies are more environmentally conscious. The world population shrinks to just above a billion people within 12 generations. That's about half a square kilometer of earth per person, which is more then enough land to absorb our environmental footprint. Plus our technology will become more efficient and more environmentally responsible in the 280 years that have passed. In short by promoting women's rights, women's education, the use of contraceptives, the investment in retirement funds, and other first world luxuries that help to curb population growth, then we will naturally reduce our impact. Countries that experience this growth in pro-liberty/pro-technology ideals immediately start to see population drops. For instance Iran which may not be known here for being pro-liberty, has some very intellectual movements. For instance women's groups are operating and challenging traditional values. It's also been shown that as the population of women in a country become more educated they are less likely to have many children. Availability of contraceptives increases the chances of births in these nations being planned and wanted in advance. We don't need to have draconian policy that will stop economic and technological growth in the hopes of carving out some sort of indigenous Luddite life, as many extremists have proposed.

http://www.gnxp.com/MT2/archives/000882.html
http://www.mongabay.com/igapo/world_statistics_by_pop.htm